Odds CLARITY Act Passes This Year Drop to 50%

Galaxy Digital lowered its odds that the CLARITY Act will become law this year to 50% from 60%, pointing to a compressed Senate calendar and a new political standoff tied to the SAVE Act. A decentralized prediction market currently prices the chance of passage this year at about 44%.

For the CLARITY Act to clear the Senate before the August recess, leaders must produce a single bill text reconciling language from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, file a motion to begin floor debate and allow time for possible amendments and a final vote. Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to set debate time by the first week of July to secure a vote before lawmakers leave for the traditional late-summer break. No procedural motions to start debate have been filed.

The schedule has tightened as Senate floor time is consumed by competing priorities, including the annual defense authorization and reauthorization of surveillance authorities under FISA. The timeline narrowed further after President Donald Trump conditioned his support for a bipartisan housing bill on passage of the SAVE Act, an elections measure requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration and new photo-identification rules for federal ballots. The SAVE Act passed the House but lacks the 60 votes needed to overcome a Senate filibuster.

Policy disagreements over the CLARITY Act remain unresolved. Several Democratic senators have pushed for tougher ethics rules, stricter conflict-of-interest limits and stronger anti-money-laundering provisions. An amendment from Senator Chris Van Hollen to tighten conflict-of-interest rules did not advance in committee, and Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker have pressed for enforceable ethics provisions. Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the current draft, arguing it would weaken safeguards against illicit finance and creating new loopholes: “Our adversaries exploit crypto to move billions. The CLARITY Act, as it’s currently written, would make this problem worse. Congress should be strengthening illicit finance standards, not creating new loopholes.”

Law enforcement and regulators have also flagged concerns about language tied to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which would limit treating certain developers and infrastructure providers as financial intermediaries when they do not control customer funds. Supporters say those protections prevent open-source developers from being held responsible for activity they cannot direct. Critics contend the language could restrict tools used to combat money laundering, sanctions evasion and other illicit finance in decentralized finance.

Industry lobbying has increased as the window for action has narrowed. Ripple deployed a mobile advertising campaign around Washington called the “Clarity Truck” to urge lawmakers to schedule a vote and to present the bill as a way to protect consumers and keep U.S. firms competitive with other jurisdictions. Senator Cynthia Lummis has raised concerns that the United States could fall behind countries that have established digital-asset rules. Galaxy Digital has said its forecast downgrade was driven mainly by calendar constraints rather than a collapse in policy negotiations.

Market participants are watching the legislation for its potential impact on digital assets. Bitcoin recently fell below $60,000, more than 50% off an October peak cited in industry analyses. Asset-manager scenarios link passage of federal rules like the CLARITY Act to possible stabilization in prices, while failure to pass the bill amid deleveraging and higher interest rates is described as a factor that could extend downward pressure. The bill’s near-term prospects hinge on whether Senate leaders can clear floor time in July and resolve outstanding policy differences before the fall campaign season.